Rational mNAV · MSTR ⇄ BTC Decision Engine

Your Decision Frame

Three beliefs drive everything below. Set them to match your own view — the tool converts them into the valuation they imply.

1Holding horizon

How many years you'd hold MSTR before switching back to self-custody. With the optimizer on, the tool also finds the best exit τ* and shows both.

years

2Wrapper-risk hurdle

The annual premium you demand for bearing counterparty & wrapper risk instead of holding your own keys. Compounds over the horizon; may be negative.

%/yr vs self-custody

3Bitcoin price model

The growth path every valuation is conditioned on — your belief about Bitcoin, not a forecast. Trends compound from the 200-WMA fair-value anchor.

median CAGR profile

Inputs & Assumptions

The market snapshot, Strategy's balance sheet, and the model machinery — organized by theme. Prefilled with a recent snapshot; every value is editable.

Market snapshot

Use live-populated market prices (refreshed every 15 minutes)

BTC spot (USD)

BTC 200-week MA (USD)

BTC Trailing 200-wk realized CAGR (%/yr)

Today's BTC fair price (USD; default = de-lagged 200-WMA)

MSTR share price (USD)

STRC price (USD)

MSTR Diluted shares outstanding

Strategy balance sheet

BTC held

USD reserve (USD)

STRC current coupon (%)

Debt — convertible notes (notional, $M)

Convert 2028

Convert 2030 B

Convert 2029

Convert 2030 A

Convert 2031

Convert 2032

Preferred stock (notional, $M)

STRF

STRC

STRE

STRK

STRD

BTC Assumptions

BTC volatility regime stochastic volatility (auto-calibrated regimes)

Accessible BTC supply (lost coins excluded)

BTC relative vol now σ (log)

Vol decay γ (σ∝age^−γ)

Corridor reversion speed θ (/yr)

Anchor trend to 200-WMA fair value (de-lagged; spot converges to trend) enable

Dislocation half-life (yrs)

GBM median CAGR (%/yr)

DR decay λ (/yr, all DR models)

Jump intensity (jumps/yr)

Jump mean (bps, +=up)

Jump std (bps)

Joint fiscal shock (BTC re-rates w/ rate jump) tie BTC to rate jumps

BTC re-rating / shock (%, +=debasement)

BTC re-rating std (%)

Bitcoin Yield Model

Market capitalization duration D (yrs of excess BY priced)

Momentum kernel: upside slope κ⁺

Momentum kernel: neutral forward BY (%/yr)

Forward BY: weight on momentum

Entry BTC momentum (trailing EMA, %/yr)

Entry trailing realized BY (%/yr)

Amplification Assumptions

Countercyclical amplification (feasible estimator: target = base·e^−x̂, x̂ from trailing WMA proxy) enable

Amp target at fair value (BTC Reserve ÷ Net Reserve)

Amp floor (mania)

Amp ceiling (bear bottom)

Fractional-Kelly carry cap (0 = off)

Static amplification target (if countercyclical off)

Absolute issuance ceiling

Finite-Supply Brakes

Price impact: concentration coef k_perm

Price impact: buy-size coef k_temp

Concentration pace exponent p_conc (buy flow ∝ remaining float^p)

STRC carry margin (%/yr)

USD Reserve Assumptions

Reserve target clamp (months; endogenous target capped here)

Reserve refill trigger (months)

Reserve op. floor (months)

Last-resort BTC sale (sell BTC to fund dividend before pausing) enable

Last-resort BTC sale: max % of stack / qtr

MSTR ATM Assumptions

Below-NAV ATM cap (% BTC val/qtr)

Accretive ATM (issue into strength, stack BTC) enable

Accretive ATM: min mNAV to issue (capacity channel off)

Collateral-capacity ATM: common issuance at sub-1 mNAV unlocks STRC capacity enable

Accretive ATM: pace × premium (slope)

Accretive ATM: max % BTC value / qtr

Discount buyback (sell BTC to retire shares below NAV) enable

Buyback: pace × discount (slope)

Buyback: max % BTC value / qtr

Interest Rates

SOFR / policy-rate model

Constrained policy rate (lean against SOFR above threshold) enable

Constrained policy rate: threshold SOFR (%)

Constrained policy rate: lean strength (/yr)

Hard policy-rate cap

Cap level — SOFR pinned ≤ (%)

SOFR / policy rate now (%)

SOFR long-run / neutral (%)

Cap start year (if "after year N")

Cap breach level — SOFR trigger (%)

SOFR–BTC shock correlation

STRC Assumptions

STRC baseline spread over SOFR (%)

STRC spread × reserve-runway sensitivity (%)

STRC spread × coverage sensitivity (%)

STRC spread × volatility sensitivity (%)

STRC coupon willingness ceiling (%)

STRC ex-div sawtooth amplitude ($)

STRC rate ceiling (%)

Credit-rating migration (seasons up, downgrades on pause) enable

Max rating tightening (%, at full seasoning)

BTC-as-collateral regime (Basel) enable

Basel: effective from year

Basel: permanent spread tightening (%)

Cumulative div fraction

Arrears compound (%/yr)

Other

Optimize holding horizon (find τ* before switching to self-custody) enable

Simulated paths

Two views — tap to switch

Verdict

Awaiting inputs

Fill in the current state and run the assessment.

MSTR —— self-custody BTC

Probability Distribution of Outcomes — MSTR's annualized return, measured in Bitcoin, over a -year hold

Distribution of MSTR's annual return measured in Bitcoin, across all simulated paths. The white line is holding your own coins (0%); the red line is your hurdle. Bars to the right of the red line clear the hurdle; left of the white line they lose to simply holding BTC.

Optimal Holding Horizon

Your rational equity mNAV as a function of the holding horizon. The marked peak τ* is the optimal pre-committed exit — the year the wrapper's marginal excess return stops clearing your hurdle and self-custody takes over. A broad plateau means the exact year matters little.

Generates a snapshot image of this run — your beliefs, the verdict, the return distribution, and the rational mNAVs.

© 2026 @rationalmnav · Site content licensed CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 (share with attribution; no commercial use or modified versions). · Disclaimer. This tool is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice, nor a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or asset, including MSTR shares, Strategy's preferred securities, or Bitcoin. Every figure it produces is the conditional output of user-supplied assumptions and stylized parameters, is not a forecast, and may differ materially from realized outcomes. Results for holding periods beyond roughly thirty years deserve particular caution and should be read as directional rather than precise: across such spans the Bitcoin monetary and security model, the interest-rate regime, the regulatory environment, and Strategy's own capital structure and strategy all carry uncertainties the model cannot fully capture, and several of its dynamics grow increasingly sensitive to the assumptions behind them. Markets involve risk of loss. Conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified, licensed professional before making any investment decision. This decision tool is itself a work in progress and is likely to change as new learnings arise, the modeling improves, and strategies evolve.